By Our Correspondent
The world is on course to exceed critical global temperature thresholds, potentially exposing billions of people to devastating climate impacts, as governments struggle to meet their greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments, a new analysis by Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has warned.
The report projects that global temperatures could rise by an average of 2.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century if governments maintain their current climate policies.
The projection represents an increase from the 2.6 degrees Celsius forecast in the organisation’s assessment last year, underscoring the widening gap between countries’ climate commitments and the measures required to limit global warming.
The projected increase would significantly exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold established under the Paris Agreement, which countries adopted a decade ago to curb the effects of climate change.
Scientists have warned that the threshold could be breached within the next few years, potentially worsening extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, storms and flooding.
Beyond the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit, vulnerable communities could face increasingly severe climate-related risks, while the possibility of triggering dangerous climate feedback mechanisms could also increase.
The warning comes as representatives from countries around the world, excluding the United States, gather in Antalya, Türkiye, for the United Nations climate conference, with the possibility of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius target emerging as a major issue at the meeting.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Tuesday urged governments to view the anticipated temperature overshoot as a reason to intensify climate action, particularly through a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels, which remain a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the CAT analysis, more ambitious emission reduction measures could significantly improve projections for future global temperatures.
However, even if countries fully implement their existing climate pledges, targets and long-term commitments, global temperatures are still projected to reach approximately 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
The report expressed concern that several countries had repeatedly fallen short of their climate commitments, raising questions about the effectiveness of existing international efforts to address global warming.
Chief Executive of Climate Analytics, a partner organisation of Climate Action Tracker, Bill Hare, said governments faced a critical decision between maintaining support for the fossil fuel industry and accelerating the transition to cleaner energy sources.
He warned that continued dependence on fossil fuels could expose humanity to significant economic losses, increased deaths associated with extreme heat and climate-related diseases, as well as environmental disasters that vulnerable communities might struggle to survive.
Hare, however, cautioned against interpreting the prospect of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold as a reason to abandon efforts to limit global warming.
He stressed that every additional fraction of a degree in global temperatures would have serious consequences for human lives, livelihoods and the environment.
The CAT findings are broadly consistent with a recent United Nations assessment, which drew on previous data from the organisation to develop its own projections of future global temperatures.
Despite the slow pace of emission reductions, the report identified some encouraging developments in the global transition towards cleaner energy.
It noted that carbon pollution was expected to decline slightly this year, while global investment in clean energy had increased to twice the amount allocated to fossil fuels.
The growing adoption of electric vehicles and a significant reduction in deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon region were also highlighted as positive developments.
However, the report warned that these gains remained insufficient to avert severe climate consequences without more ambitious, sustained and coordinated action by governments.
Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunberg, who arrived in Antalya on Tuesday, also warned that the future of humanity and the environment was at stake, citing what she described as the failure of governments to respond adequately to the climate crisis.
The lead author of the CAT report, Sarah Heck, said governments were collectively failing to implement climate policies at the pace required to prevent the world from entering a prolonged period of temperature overshoot.
She also raised concerns about what she described as a significant slowdown in climate action in some countries, including the United States, Canada and New Zealand.
According to Heck, the scale of the slowdown in these countries was particularly concerning and could further complicate international efforts to keep global warming within manageable limits.
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